The divide between leading AI companies is starting to matter more for investors. For years, the common strategy was simple—spread bets across the entire space. But that approach is now evolving.
Anderson points out that many large investors still want exposure to both OpenAI and Anthropic. The long-term winner in the AI race is still unclear. “The jury’s still out,” he said. However, in the secondary market, momentum appears to have shifted.
That doesn’t mean OpenAI has lost relevance. Anderson cautions against viewing the situation as a direct rivalry where one must win and the other lose. “It’s not a one-or-the-other conversation,” he explained.
Still, the current market energy tells a different story. Compared to Anthropic, OpenAI isn’t generating the same level of excitement. “It’s not nearly as vibrant a market as Anthropic right now,” he admitted.
On valuation, Anderson backed earlier reports suggesting that OpenAI shares in the secondary market are trading at an implied valuation of around $765 billion—lower than its latest primary valuation of $852 billion. While he noted he was recalling figures from memory, he said those estimates were “in the right range.”
Meanwhile, OpenAI is trying to tighten control over how its shares are traded privately. A company spokesperson warned investors to be cautious about firms claiming access to OpenAI equity, especially through special purpose vehicles (SPVs). The company has instead set up authorized channels via banks, aiming to reduce reliance on high-fee intermediaries.
Interestingly, major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have started offering OpenAI shares to wealthy clients without charging carry fees. In contrast, Goldman is reportedly applying its typical carry—often between 15% and 20%—for investors seeking exposure to Anthropic.
Amid all this, one company stands apart: SpaceX.
According to Anderson, SpaceX has largely avoided the sharp valuation corrections that hit many private companies between 2022 and 2024, when some saw their share prices drop by as much as 60% to 70%. Instead, SpaceX has shown steady upward growth.
He credits the company’s disciplined approach to pricing. Unlike others that push valuations as high as possible in every funding round, SpaceX has been more measured. “Not getting too greedy,” as he put it, has helped maintain long-term stability and investor confidence.
The payoff has been significant. Investors who entered around 2015—when SpaceX was valued at roughly $12 billion after backing from Google and Fidelity—are now sitting on returns exceeding 100x, with the company’s valuation reportedly surpassing $1 trillion ahead of its IPO.
That IPO now appears close. SpaceX has confidentially filed to go public, potentially raising between $50 billion and $75 billion. If successful, it could become one of the largest IPOs ever, rivaled only by Saudi Aramco’s massive 2019 debut.
The expected listing has already reshaped the secondary market. Anderson noted a surge in demand from investors eager to buy SpaceX shares. At the same time, supply is shrinking, as existing shareholders prefer to hold on until the public listing provides liquidity.
This creates a challenge for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which are also reportedly considering IPOs. By moving first, SpaceX may absorb a significant portion of available capital.
“There’s only so much money out there allocated to IPOs,” Anderson said. “SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity.”
It’s a familiar pattern in financial markets. The first company to go public often captures the most attention—and funding. Those that follow may face tougher scrutiny and reduced investor appetite.
For AI companies, timing could be critical. Launch too early, and you risk testing uncertain market demand. Wait too long, and the biggest investment checks may already be committed elsewhere.
Also Read: Anthropic Accidentally Exposes Claude Code Source Code
